Preview of Real Madrid vs Osasuna Betting in the Copa del Rey Final
The match is scheduled to take place on a neutral ground in Seville. It’s safe to say that most people are tired of hearing about this game being a typical David vs Goliath scenario in Spanish football.
Let’s delve a little deeper and consider what’s not so obvious here. In the story of David and Goliath, both parties cared about the outcome of their battle. Real Madrid has shown a lack of focus in their recent La Liga fixtures, as Barcelona appeared to have already secured the title.
However, Osasuna is more invested in this final than Real Madrid. Naturally, Real Madrid is expected to care about the game because there is a trophy at stake. Although the Champions League is their primary objective, winning the Copa del Rey may be the only trophy they win in the 2022/23 season.
In contrast, Osasuna is living the dream of being involved in this game. However, Real Madrid’s next match against Manchester City in the Champions League semifinals will be the most challenging game of the season.
If Real Madrid is ahead, will Carletto make substitutions to give Benzema, Modric, or Kroos a break? These are valid questions to ask, but Osasuna will give everything they have in this game, making such substitutions unthinkable.
What will be the implications of these factors for the betting markets?
Betting Preview: Real Madrid vs Osasuna
Real Madrid is the clear favorite with odds of 1.35 in the 1×2 betting market, which is reasonable given their -0.5 handicap. However, the current -1.5 Asian Handicap seems a bit unbalanced, especially considering Carletto’s need to balance fitness needs and the upcoming match against Manchester City. He only needs a one-goal advantage to win the Copa del Rey title.
If Osasuna falls behind, they will likely attack aggressively, as this is a do-or-die game for them. However, I am not a fan of large handicaps, particularly negative ones. A more balanced approach would be a -1 handicap at around 2.0 odds.
Is it worthwhile to bet on Osasuna at +1.5 with odds of approximately 1.9? While I would not hold onto this bet until the end of the game, purchasing it and observing Real Madrid’s -1.5 handicap reducing to a more manageable -1 could provide a useful hedging opportunity.
Regarding correct score or over/under bets, Real Madrid’s defense has been unpredictable when Alaba and Militão are not at their best or when Nacho is playing. Nacho’s presence on the field, particularly as a LB, can lead to unexpected goals, so I would not be too hasty in choosing under lines. However, this is not a compelling reason to make any specific pre-match bets.
