Real Madrid wins El Clásico – betting market results:
As the hosts were performing better, the live market also presented a good bet with odds close to 2.0, Real Madrid -0 @1-0.
The game also ended up as a winning bet for overs in the Asian handicap markets as the average lines were over/under 3.
During the game, after Real Madrid scored the first goal of the match, I thought Under 3.75 @ 2.0 was a tempting bet, as the game wasn’t producing that many chances, and Ancelotti, as most Italian managers, was probably going to change the formation into a more defensive one.
The game was indeed progressing slowly with both teams marking relatively well and Real Madrid producing more chances, but a late and somewhat unexpected goal of Barcelona reignited the game and the four goals would have made Under 3.75 a half loss.
Under 3 @2.0 before kick-off also seemed interesting, but it would also have been a loss.
Real Madrid and Barcelona: the situation in the betting markets
The result showed how Real Madrid was really poor in the last game of the UEFA Champions League mostly due to motivation. The excessive number of subs starting that game also didn’t help, and the Ukrainians could have won the match.
At the beginning of October, I wrote about the outrights market situation for La Liga, and Madrid had just lost the lead in the classification due to the draw at home against Osasuna. But I was surprised to see Barcelona with smaller odds than Los Blancos.
After the weekend round is finished and all adjustments are made in the outrights markets we are likely to see a significant difference between Barcelona and Real Madrid, especially due to the psychological effects of such a loss to Barcelona.
The Blaugrana will travel back home after having heard Real fans asking for Xavi to remain as their manager, and mocking Barça as they’ll probably have to be in the UEFA Europa League in the second part of the season.
I believe this is the kind of result that can make a train gain traction in the domestic cup. We’ll have a weird season with the World Cup break and perhaps Barcelona is very much looking forward to this pause to reorganize everything.
It’s worth mentioning that Ansu Fati changed a lot the way they played in the second half and his presence should affect the betting markets, especially in the over/under selections in the coming rounds. Barça was really poor in terms of creating chances without him.
Real Madrid 3 – 1 Barça: secondary betting markets review
The cards betting markets had the odds closest to even at the lines of Over/under 5.5 cards. The match produced just 4 yellow cards and that was due to the referee tolerating rather violent fouls. This game could easily have produced a lot more cards, but the under 5.5 bet produced profits with generous odds of 2.40.
Benzema had odds of 1.90 to score, which in my opinion was a bit low considering the number of goals he scored in the season so far, but it was a winner as the French striker scored the first game of the match.