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Al Hilal – Real Madrid: Betting Preview

Real Madrid Analysis

This tournament is a big problem for Real Madrid. If FIFA Club World Cup wasn’t a problem for Los Blancos in February, the Madrid team would play only 6 games in February, which is far more manageable than the 8 they’ll be playing.

Back in 2022 squad depth only seemed to be an issue for Real Madrid if we consider the defence of Los Blancos. Ancelotti struggled to find a decent replacement within the squad for the left-back, for example, with disastrous attempts including Nacho and Rüdiger.

And he also couldn’t use Alaba as a left-back, because the centre-backs are also a problem.

Nacho seems to give nightmares to the Madridistas whether he plays as a RB, CB or LB. I mean this respectfully, I separate the citizen Nacho from the footballer. But I watch every Real Madrid game and the recent past has been bad for him wearing white.

However, the problem of squad depth contaminated other sectors of the team. Camavinga has been playing very well as a left-back, but this is a short-term solution for the sector, according to Carletto.

Ancelotti seems mindful that he needs to use the minutes of Kroos and Modric (especially) wisely, especially in ridiculous months like February 2023 when he’ll face 8 games in 28 days.

The problem with that is this: Camavinga and Tchouaméni seem to be investments for the future. If Modric’s age wasn’t enough of a problem, Kroos seems to be very likely to retire next summer.

Camavinga not being used in a sector where he can blossom further and help Carlo Ancelotti rebuild the midfield with young blood is a problem. Also, Valverde is often being used as a winger, which also compromises the project to rebuild Madrid’s midfield.

Last but not least, when Benzema is not available, Rodrygo’s ability to be a true striker is irregular, not good enough. I don’t mean this as criticism as he is incredibly useful as a winger and central midfielder. But the level of accuracy required to be a Real Madrid striker is incredible.

Mariano Díaz is not getting enough minutes to be an acceptable solution. I guess the biggest problem we’re seeing here is this: this squad could clearly use some transfer window action. But Madrid chose to invest in the distant future with Endrick, the Brazilian star bought for over €60m, but that’ll only arrive in Madrid in 2024.

Al Hilal Analysis

I believe Al Hilal was very brave against Flamengo. I watched the game and they deserved their qualification to the final.

Al Hilal clearly spends more on international talent than Al Ahly, which means this game should be harder for the Spanish side.

Betting Analysis and Match Preview

In the 1×2 market, I guess Real Madrid 1.27 may be slightly low considering that Real Madrid is tired due to the schedule and that the Saudi team is way more interested in the game. But even the big odds of 8+ of a Saudi victory or match draw doesn’t seem appealing.

Also, this game can have extra time which means Madrid doesn’t even need to beat the handicap to go back to Spain with the silverware.

In spite of the recent problems of Real Madrid, I think they still deserve some handicap between -0.5 and -0.75. It’s fair to point that I rarely agree with huge handicaps because of what statistics show us.

But I also find it hard to tell anyone to back The Asian team here at +1.75.

I also don’t have any special thoughts about the over/under line in the house of 3.

I think the live betting market may present some opportunities to us. But the today market seems way too unpredictable.