Learn how to bet on the goals of Real Madrid’s matches
The focus is on the performance of the teams and not the number of goals in the entire match.
The over/under goals market analyses the entire match as a betting event.
There are complex systems like the Asian Handicap Over/under which involves a specific form of DNB (draw no bet), but the most basic forms of over/under goals betting are pretty simple to understand.
Let’s have a look at the real-life example of the upcoming game between Elche and Real Madrid, valid for La Liga 2022/23.
Elche – Real Madrid (October 19th, 2022) – Over/Under 3.5 goals
The 3.5 over/under line is a typical one for matches between teams of different sizes. Real Madrid is the current 1st team of the La Liga classification table, whilst Elche is at the bottom, 20th in the table.
Average games between teams of the same size have lines in the house of 2.5 (o/u) for odds around 2.0.
Let’s analyze what happens if you bet on each line:
Over 3.5: you win the bet if the game produces 4 or more goals. Scores like 2-2, 3-1, 1-3, 4-0, and so on, will make this bet a profitable one, regardless of the odds, what matters is the line here. Right now, the over 3.5 lines are paying 2.24 on average.
Under 3.5: Any final score that produces 3 goals or fewer. 0-0, 1-0, 0-2, 0-3, all these final scores make under 3.5 a winner. Right now, the average odds for under 3.5 are 1.67.
Why 3.5? The basic lines of this system avoid the betting draw. If the line was over/under 3 and the game ends up having exactly 3 goals, the result would be a draw betting between the bettor and the sportsbook.
This situation can happen, and there’s an even more complex concept called a half-win or half-loss, but for now, keep in mind that selections like over / under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and so on work the way we just analyzed.
Over/under Football Betting: Real Madrid Games
Real Madrid is a team that often scores lots of scores against small teams. That’s why the lines for this game have stabilized around 3.5 with odds close to 2.0.
However, big games like last weekend’s El Clásico against Barcelona tend to have fewer goals because the teams have more quality, and the man-marking is more efficient.
Even if that game finished 3-1, the lines for that game were below this one. The average odds and lines depend on the teams, league, and the motivation of each team to the game.
Factors like lots of first-choice defenders absent due to suspension or injury can also affect the lines, making under lines less attractive, as well as the absence of attackers, which devalues the odds for overs.