Understanding the schedule and the timing of the football betting markets:
The football betting markets work in terms of probabilities. This applies not just to the calculation of the odds, but the time when they are released.
Odds can be ‘risky’ both for the bettor and for the house if some factors can’t be calculated properly.
It’s all about information: the betting markets schedule
As a general rule, the closest something is to happen, the easier it is to calculate the odds. This applies both to bettors and bookies. Some odds are sold months, sometimes years in advance such as World Cup odds, both for matches and outright markets.
In a way, the market doesn’t expect major surprises in a traditional tournament like this, especially in the outrights market.
In this article we are focusing mainly on the time odds are released, but all the above factors also affect betting limits. The closer to kick-off time, the higher they get. The reason is the same: risk management.
Examples of factors that can affect betting odds
Big leagues have odds released by the bookies weeks before the matches happen. Normally, leagues like La Liga have two rounds of odds released at all times, unless the season’s end is approaching and only round 38 has odds available.
So imagine the following scenario: how to anticipate injuries or even card suspensions if you have two rounds of odds, let’s say matchdays 11 and 12 out simultaneously?
The risks exist and that’s why betting limits grow as the match approaches.
Secondary football betting markets: odds schedule
Normally, secondary markets also open as the kick-off approaches. For example, right now card/corner markets are not open at some bookies for the upcoming midweek round of the UEFA Champions League.
Different Leagues, different markets, and different odds/betting limits
You also shouldn’t expect different leagues to have the same markets. Bookies will hardly ever let you on specific markets of obscure leagues, due to risk management as expected.
Major markets like the World Cup or a Champions League knockout phase will have markets to incredibly specific markets, for example, if a specific player that is expected to start on the bench will be sent off. As expected, if the player isn’t even likely to be fielded, to see this player fielded and sent off is very unlikely.
Let’s consider this: Courtois is starting a game 100% fit, so it’s highly unlikely to see Lunin fielded and sent off. But these odds exist, and normally they are released closer to the kick-off than 1×2 and Asian Handicap lines, for example.
Live Betting odds: a parallel football betting universe
Live betting is a whole separate chapter, but it’s worth mentioning that all markets can be blocked during a live game. But normally the blocked odds don’t last long. The bookies have traders for risk management, and part of the process is automated these days, or semiautomated depending on the platform used by the house.
A penalty, a goal, the referee in contact with the VAR, all these things will block the market, usually for a few minutes.
For that reason, professionals that bet big usually enjoy betting during the half-time break, because there’s no sport factor that can cause a market block and bets can be placed swiftly.
New Betting Guides
You may also want to check our fresh guide about the current situation of La Liga outright market, and our betting preview to today’s game of Real Madrid on the road against Elche.
Keep an eye on our blog and home page for more betting guides!